The Long Term Success Factors

Predicting the long term success or failure of either format is all but impossible, as it's just too soon to tell. However, it is intrinsically clear that the landscape for media is VASTLY different than it was 10 years ago when DVD format media and players were released.

The first DVD players were released in the spring/summer of 1997, and it took another two years before we saw an industrious coder, one Jon Johansen, crack DVD format's CSS encryption. By this point DVD players were relatively plentiful and inexpensive, though the illicit distribution of "DVDRips" was still in its infancy at the time. Today media piracy is an almost unstoppable juggernaut, though it appears that movie studio's despite complaints to the contrary, aren't closing their doors quite yet. The first high definition players appeared barely half a year ago, but it's safe to say with the initial lack of interest in them (when you compare this historically to DVD's initial launch timeframe), the first REAL push into consumer markets is happening now. And right now, there are already BlueRay and HD-DVD movies floating around on the internet. Currently this is little more than a curiosity perhaps, but it speaks volumes to how the playing field itself is changing.

On line video sites like Youtube have become immensely popular. Several networks and studio's have begun releasing downloadable content as well, some of it for free (look at ABC.com). Granted, all of these video avenues are by no means high definition in quality, certainly not Youtube. Their immense popularity though is about personal choice and seeking entertainment, both of which we feel are far more important considerations than being able to ogle Angelina Jolie in 1080p.

Harken back to the days of the old VHS vs Betamax war for a moment. Betamax was a clearly superior quality format, supporting more lines of resolution than VHS, and it lost out to VHS due to market economics and consumer desire. Consumers wanted to record more on a tape, and to get more on a tape you went with VHS. While Betamax and Betacam dominated the broadcast market for ages, mom and pop consumers are where the money is ultimately made, and VHS won out over Betamax because it was "good enough", and gave consumers what they wanted.

Right now, does the consumer "want" high definition? I think that is an honest question to ask at this point. Surely high definition is the future, and we'll all be experiencing high definition content as the overwhelming norm in another couple of years. But, we feel it's sort of a solution to a problem that doesn't quite exist.

Consumers who adopt high definition displays now will see some benefits of their money spent today without spending another dime. There is a limited amount of high definition content available via cable and satellite networks already. Here in the states if you have a set with an ATSC tuner (many cheap sets do not come with one), you can receive high definition broadcast over an antenna in many local broadcast markets. Also, high definition displays will give you a modest to moderate quality boost over your old cheap tube set, when playing DVD's. Beyond high definition sets, more and more consumers are keeping their noses glued to PC screens these days, eschewing traditional media outlets altogether.

Because of these issues, we tend to think that it honestly doesn't matter which of the high definition media formats ultimately wins the "war", perhaps because it's a war being fought over an already apathetic consumer in the first place. And by the time high definition media (whether it's HD-DVD or Blueray) is ubiquitous, plentiful, and cheap, we feel the average consumer might possibly be too busy downloading or streaming their content to care.

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Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved.